Swing State Iowa in 2024? A new poll shows Switch leading the presidential race

DES MOINES, Iowa (Gray Media Iowa State Capitol Bureau) – A new poll shows a significant change in the presidential race in Iowa and raises questions about whether the state is a swing state again.

The Des Moines Register Mediacom Iowa Poll reflects a wave of support for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and shows why activists have felt a lot better about their party’s chances since she replaced President Joe Biden.

Biden ended his re-election campaign in July.

The new poll of 808 likely voters shows a seven-point shift from September, when Trump was ahead 47-43%, to Harris, who now leads 47-44%.

The difference between the two candidates in the latest poll is within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3.4 points.

View the full poll here.

Women are key to Harris’ support. The poll shows that women registered as no party (independents) are turning towards Harris. She has a 28-point lead over Trump.

Among older women (65 years and older), Harris’ lead is even greater: 35%. Older men give a two-point lead over Harris.

Overall, Harris has a 20-point lead over Trump among women.

The poll shows that Trump’s support among men overall has fallen from a 27-point lead over Harris in September’s Iowa Poll to a 14-point lead now.

If Harris has substantially improved support in the state and it manifests on Election Day, that could also mean better chances for Democrats in other prominent races such as the 1st and 3rd Congressional Districts and the legislative races.

Trump won Iowa comfortably in the past two elections. He defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016 by nine points and Joe Biden in 2020

About the Author: Dave Price, a native of the Midwest, is Gray Television’s political director in Iowa for nine stations broadcasting in the state and has been covering local, state and national politics from Iowa since 2001.

Dave produces and hosts “Inside Iowa Politics,” a weekly, in-depth show focused on interviews with top leaders on the politics, issues, challenges and solutions impacting the state.

He has written two books about the Iowa Caucus Chaos (“Caucus Chaos” and “Caucus Chaos Trump”). Email him [email protected]. Follow him on X (Twitter): @idaveprijs Meta/Facebook: DavePriceNews Instagram: idave prize and LinkedIn: Dave Price.

Dave welcomes your thoughts on the answers we should seek from politicians and what issues are challenging our communities.