Hezbollah is weakened but still very deadly – Israel News

Israel began its ground operation against Hezbollah on October 1. This means that the entire month of October reflects a month of war on the ground in Lebanon. At the same time, Hezbollah has attempted to carry out daily attacks on Israel using rockets and drones.

Hezbollah has increased the range of its rocket attacks in response to Israel’s launch of Operation Northern Arrows in September. Israel’s original targets were Hezbollah commanders, and the IDF used its air force for precision strikes.

The battle with Hezbollah in October increased the number of casualties Israel has suffered in the war. A total of 88 Israeli soldiers and civilians were killed in October. Of these, about thirty soldiers were killed during fighting in Lebanon. Nineteen of those killed in October were killed in fighting in Gazaaccording to Ynet.

Thirteen people were killed in Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks in northern Israel. Six soldiers were also killed in a Hezbollah drone strike on a training base, and two were killed in the Golan. The IDF says more than 4,400 projectiles entered Israel from Lebanon in October. The IDF also estimates that more than 1,500 Hezbollah members were killed in October.

Israeli data on Hezbollah attacks comes in different forms. One of the forms is data about a war year from October 2023 to October 2024. Hezbollah has attacked Israel since October 8, 2023.

IDF forces operate in southern Lebanon. November 3, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

In a year of fighting, the IDF killed more than 800 Hezbollah members in Lebanon. About 450 of them were killed between October 2023 and September 2024. Many of them were killed in the exploding pager incident and also in attacks on Beirut targeting Hezbollah commanders, as well as the wave of attacks on September 23. That means hundreds were killed from September 17 to October 7.

The IDF had attacked thousands of targets in Lebanon over the year, from October 2023 to early October 2024. This increased dramatically when Israel launched Operation Northern Arrows on September 23.

It is worth comparing the high number of Hezbollah attacks in October 2024 with what we know about the year of conflict that took place before the ground offensive. A total of 12,400 projectiles entered Israel from Lebanon during a year of conflict with Hezbollah. That’s an average of about 1,000 per month and 33 projectiles per day. Some of these were drones.

Hezbollah’s use of missiles and drones has been relatively consistent, month to month. For example, by August 2024, Hezbollah had launched 7,5000 rockets and more than 200 drones at Israel. In contrast, a total of 3,100 rockets and drones were launched into Israel by the Iran-backed terrorist group in the first six months of Hezbollah attacks.

In the first six months of the conflict, the IDF hit 1,400 targets in Lebanon. To put that into perspective, the IDF hit 1,600 targets in just one day on September 23, when the war against Hezbollah began. Between April 2024 and mid-September 2024, several thousand more Hezbollah targets were hit before Israel massively increased its attacks.

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In October, the IDF has stepped up its attacks on Hezbollah, and the ground offensive has taken its toll on Hezbollah. More than 1,500 Hezbollah operatives may have been killed in October. This is in addition to approximately 1,000 deaths between October 8, 2023 and early October 2024.

What is known about Hezbollah’s daily rocket fire in October? The IDF releases data on most days that reflects the number of projectiles entered Israel during each day. On October 3, for example, a total of 230 projectiles flew into Israel.

This includes drones and missiles. In the first days of October, when the ground offensive began, Hezbollah increased its rocket fire compared to months ago. About 200 rockets entered Israel every day. There was an increase during Yom Kippur. By mid-October, the number of rockets and drones fired at Israel had fallen slightly to about 150 per day. By the end of the month the decline had continued to around 100 per day. Despite the decline, missiles and drones are deadly. For example, rocket attacks have killed people in Majd al-Krum, Tarshiha and Shfaram in the past week.

Israel and Hezbollah increase attacks

The trend in October was for both Israel and Hezbollah to increase their attacks. However, Hezbollah suffered from exhaustion during the fighting. The missile arsenal is also depleted. Israel’s Defense Minister has said Hezbollah may have lost up to 80 percent of some types of missiles.

Hezbollah started the war with 150,000 rockets, meaning the group still has tens of thousands of rockets at its disposal. It can still launch a hundred rockets a day for many months or a year. The group also has numerous drones and is likely to make more drones locally. However, as the group is pushed back from the border, it has lost some of its anti-tank guided missiles, as large numbers of them have been uncovered by the IDF. This weakens Hezbollah, but is still very deadly.