Why AP called Nevada’s presidential race for Trump

WASHINGTON (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump won his sixth battleground seat of the 2024 election early Saturday, defeating Vice President Kamala Harris in Nevada.

The Associated Press declared Trump the winner after concluding that there were not enough uncounted votes in the state’s strongest Democratic areas to overcome the former president’s 46,000-vote lead over the Democratic candidate.

Trump clinched a second term early Wednesday when Wisconsin pushed him past the 270 electoral votes needed to win, so Nevada’s six electoral votes only added to the magnitude of his victory: He now has 301 electoral votes and has six of the seven battleground states won. Only Arizona has yet to be called.

The AP will only declare a winner if it can determine that a trailing candidate cannot close the gap and overtake the voting leader.

Here’s a look at what the AP called this race:

CANDIDATES: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Joel Skousen (Independent American Party) vs. “None of these candidates.”

WINNER: Trump.

POLL CLOSING TIME: 10:00 PM ET

ABOUT THE BREED:

Nevada has one of the nation’s best track records as a presidential candidate, although voters there supported Democrat Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016. The state remains a hotly contested battleground. Both Harris and Trump made it frequent visits to Nevada since they were nominated for their parties, which included Halloween rallies in Clark County, home to Henderson and Las Vegas. Both campaigns focused their visits on those two cities, as well as Reno in Washoe County.

In statewide elections, Democrats typically hold just two of Nevada’s seventeen counties: Clark and Washoe. Whether they win depends on how big their margins are in those two provinces. Clark County has by far the largest population in the state. A large voting margin there is crucial for democratic electoral success. It accounted for 69% of the total statewide vote in 2020. Washoe is more competitive, although Democrats there have consistently had the upper hand in high-profile statewide campaigns, including Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak’s failed reelection bid in 2022. Republicans tend to win the rest of the state by wide margins.

WHY AP CALLS THE RACE:

The majority of the final ballots to be counted come from Clark and Washoe counties. They both have a long history of supporting Democrats for president. Statewide, votes counted after Election Day also favored Democrats.

Trump’s voting lead narrowed as more of these ballots were counted over the course of the week, but Harris did not win those ballots by a large enough margin to overtake Trump for the lead. At the time it called the race, AP estimated that Harris would need to win 85% of all votes yet to be counted — a margin of victory she has not achieved in any update since polls closed.

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Read more about how and why the AP declares the winners of the US elections at Explanation of the 2024 elections, a series from The Associated Press designed to help understand American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to improve its explanatory reporting on elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.