Will Florida be hit by Sara next week?

MIAMI – Invest 99L is becoming increasingly better organized and remains on track to develop into one tropical depression within days. Florida residents are now keeping an eye on the system, which forecasters say is likely to strengthen Tropical storm Sara by the weekend.

The “invest” designation allows NOAA forecasters to work in a specialized manner computer prediction models to obtain additional data on the future growth potential of the disturbance.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Wednesday that the disturbance continues to produce an area of ​​showers thunderstorms associated with a wide area of low pressureand the system will likely become a tropical depression once it slowly moves into the western Caribbean.

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The NHC gives the system an almost certain chance of developing soon.

“Steering currents in the Caribbean are very light, so ultimately ‘probable-Sara’ is expected to weave through the western Caribbean near Central America through the weekend,” says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist. Bryan Norcross said.

After that, computer forecast models indicate that the system could develop into a tropical storm as it lingers in the area and takes advantage of the warm water and low temperatures. wind shear.

The FOX Forecast Center said these conditions could cause future Sara to have a hurricane – possibly a strong one.

Regardless of the development, tough precipitation is expected to take place across the region, from Jamaica and parts of Haiti to Central America Mexico.

From there, forecasters say an area of ​​high pressure will develop north of the system, and where it settles will ultimately determine the path of future Sara.

The FOX Forecast Center said the system could move into Central America or move north and follow the Gulf of Mexico and eventually impact Florida sometime next week.

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Florida residents should keep a close eye on tropical forecasts

Norcross said a consensus of computer forecast models shows the system is forming near or offshore of the Honduras-Nicaragua border and has a good chance of becoming a hurricane early next week.

What then?

Norcross said computer models likely show Sara moving north and moving the needle between Mexico and Cuba, so a powerful hurricane could form in the Gulf of Mexico.

“On the other hand, many possible forecasts have the system over or near Central America or Cuba, including Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula,” Norcross said. “Those forecasts generally show a weaker storm in the Gulf of Mexico.”

Norcross said if the system maintains a crisp and decent structure during its time over land, there will be enough warm water in the southern Gulf of Mexico to reorganize and strengthen before it reaches Florida, if it heads that way.

“The fact that so many different computer forecasting models indicate a threat to Florida is concerning, but things can change,” Norcross said. “As always, when a system is just developing, prediction errors are likely to be large.”

Norcross went on to say there was nothing to do at this point but stay tuned, so make sure you download it for free FOX Weather App and ensure notifications alert you of any changes to the forecast.