In Africa, expectations are meager and there is some hope for a second Trump presidency

ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — African leaders may have been quick to congratulate Donald Trump on his election, expressing a desire…

ABUJA, Nigeria (AP) — African leaders may have been quick to act congratulate Donald Trump on his electionwho professes a desire for mutually beneficial partnerships, but there are slim expectations that his presidency will turn things around for this continent of more than 1.4 billion people.

In the wake of Trump’s victory, Kenya’s William Ruto said his country “stands ready” to deepen ties with Washington. Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu spoke of a second Trump administration that would usher in an era of “serious, useful and reciprocal” cooperation.

Yet observers say that African countries – once described by Trump as ‘shithole countries’ – will certainly not be high on his to-do list.

Low priority or not even a problem?

American foreign policy has not made Africa a priority for a long time – apart from seeing the continent through the lens of opposing rivals like Russia and Chinasaid Charles Ray, chairman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Africa Program.

President Joe Biden spoke of Africa as a key partner, said Ray, who served as U.S. ambassador to Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2012.

But not much action followed these words.

Africa “will be right at the bottom of (Trump’s) priority list” and any US action on the continent would likely be driven by his “transactional, ego-driven leadership style,” Ray added.

Many experts agree, citing Trump’s “America First” strategy.

Murithi Mutiga, Africa program director at the Crisis Group, said the president-elect “is a committed isolationist and clearly wants to withdraw” on several fronts around the world.

Some say deals can be made, even in Africa

J. Peter Pham, Trump’s former special envoy to the Great Lakes and Sahel regions of Africa, says Trump’s next presidency may look for a “win-win” situation in Africa.

That could include a renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act, which grants eligible African countries duty-free access to U.S. markets, Pham said during a Voice of America broadcast.

However, U.S. lawmakers have raised questions about whether African countries are adhering to the terms of the program — or whether they are undermining U.S. foreign policy and national security interests, Pham said.

South Africa, one of the biggest beneficiaries of the program, was accused by US Ambassador Reuben Brigety in 2023 of supplying weapons and ammunition to Russia for its war in Ukraine and her professed neutral position on the war was questioned.

In principle, you can’t kick America in the teeth in a way that raises questions about compliance with such deals, Pham said.

Those who do “will be treated like pariahs,” says Ray of the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Africa’s myriad health and other crises, abortion and LGBTQ+ rights

The biggest concern is that the next Trump presidency will cut funding. In many parts of Africa, such cuts could be critical for millions of girls and young women whose reproductive health and choices are heavily supported by U.S.-funded programs.

“The situation is already bad for girls (and) without these services it will be a disaster,” said Valentine Damitoni, an 18-year-old mother.

She regularly visits a local clinic in the Zimbabwean capital Harare to obtain a contraceptive under a US-funded program that will allow her to return to school without fear of becoming pregnant again.

Max Primorac, a former acting deputy director of the US Agency for International Development – one of Africa’s largest development aid donors – criticized some of the agency’s programs in Project 2025, a 900-page blueprint proposed by the conservative-leaning Heritage Foundation to reform the federal government.

In particular, Primorac criticized USAID programs that “promote abortion, climate extremism and interventions against alleged systemic racism.” It is said that the document are closely aligned with Trump’s vision – even though he has distanced himself from it.

Kiron Skinner, head of policy planning at the US State Department during Trump’s first term, recommends in the document that America should “focus on basic security, economic and human rights” in Africa rather than “radical abortion and pro-discrimination to impose. -LGBT initiatives.”

New realignments in Africa, targeting Russia and China

In Africa volatile Sahel regionsoldiers are becoming more and more the eradication of elected presidents and using anti-Western sentiments to sever ties with old allies like the United States and France – while turning to a new friend: Russia.

China, which provides infrastructure loans to African countries as a mutually beneficial partnership, rarely interferes in the internal politics of the recipient countries. Russia, the continent’s largest arms supplier, is often in bed with Africa’s military juntas.

Both countries, like America, have shown enormous interest in Africa’s rich mineral resources.

Mutiga of the Crisis Group says that “historically the problem has been that the US and the West saw Africa as a problem” that needed to be solved. China and others “saw it as an opportunity that had to be seized.”

Will Trump go back on Biden’s promises?

The Biden administration announced last December that it had invested at least $22 billion in Africa and vowed to do more. During his first term, Trump continually tried to cut foreign affairs funding. sometimes as much as 30%.

Analysts are concerned about whether key US projects in health, security and development would be implemented under Trump – especially at a time of increasing hunger and reemerging threats to democracy in Africa.

For many ordinary Africans, Trump is just a distant leader who cannot do much about their daily problems.

“Trump… is not going to save us from the hunger caused by our government,” said Isah Mohammed, a fruit seller in the Nigerian capital Abuja.

Africa’s Flashpoints, from

Western Sahara to Somalia

In Morocco, many welcomed Trump’s victory, hoping his return to office would help the North African country continue its push for global recognition for its sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara.

“The return of Morocco’s friend to the White House,” the Assabah newspaper said in its editorial.

As part of a larger deal in which Morocco normalized its ties with Israel, Trump changed long-standing US policy and recognized Morocco’s sovereignty claims before leaving office in 2020.

Biden has not reversed that decision — but has also not advanced the Trump administration’s promise to build a consulate in the disputed territory.

The stability in the The Horn of Africa is increasingly threatened by the raging war in Sudan and growing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the latter business deal with Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia.

Trump will likely cut funding to Somalia and focus more on Somaliland, predicts Rashid Abdi, an analyst at Nairobi-based think tank Sahan Research.

What is holding back Africa’s progress? Maybe Africa itself

The G20, the group of the world’s leading economies welcomed the African Union as a permanent member last year — a strong recognition from the continent’s more than 50 countries and something Biden said was “a long time coming.”

But despite this move on the world stage, observers say the union and its leaders have fallen short of expectations as they have failed to articulate their interests and put forward their demands as a united front.

“The question is often: what is Washington going to do, but what is actually the interest of Africa?” said Mutiga of the Crisis Group.

“We are in an era of transactional global relations and unless Africa can engage in a way that articulates its own interests, America’s (interests in Africa) will continue to be defined by geopolitical competition with its rivals,” he said.

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Associated Press reporters Farai Mutsaka in Harare, Zimbabwe, and Sam Metz in Rabat, Morocco, contributed to this report.

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