Is there a Bills or Chiefs summit before Week 11?

Reviewing advanced analytics is not always the easiest task; For example, what exactly are DVOA or EPA? We’ve known about total yardage, or average yards per carry, for almost as long as NFL fans have. These are easy to understand, but don’t give the full picture of how good or bad a team is. For example, you may have a bad team against the pass, so opponents attack them through the air, and this can of course skew the defense’s rushing numbers as a result, making it look like they are good run defenders, while they in reality perhaps not.

It’s also interesting that while we may disagree with the order of the top seven teams, the advanced analytics show that these are also the seven teams with the best records in the AFC. There can certainly be some debate about whether Kansas City Leaders belong where they are currently ranked, but based on the analytics they are right where they belong. You’ll see where they stand later in this article, but with that, here’s how the AFC is doing according to the analytics entering Week 11.

For some context on how these rankings were created, it’s important to understand that they are not subjective rankings of teams. Nine metrics are used to calculate a unique value for each team. The statistics are:

The Raiders fell from 15 to 16 this week, eventually taking over the bottom spot. It’s not surprising considering their ongoing battle. This team’s best ranking is 19th in defensive EPA, while it ranks 30th or lower in four of our metrics. This team is well on its way to a top five pick in next year’s NFL Draft.

The Patriots occupied the bottom tier in our AFC rankings for weeks, but eventually moved up one spot. I’m not sure if they’re getting better, or if the Raiders are that bad; it’s a mix of the two. Since Drake Maye took over at quarterback, New England has had slightly better play at the position. Maye is still prone to rookie mistakes, but the Patriots have a good one of their own. They rank in the low to mid-20s in all but two categories, where they rank 29th and 30th in offensive DVOA and defensive DVOA, respectively.

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The Jaguars are inching closer to trailing the Patriots in our analytical power rankings, which is mind-boggling. Few would argue that the Patriots are a more talented team, but there we were nonetheless. Is it coaching or a player execution issue? However, it is not an offensive problem, and the analytics prove that. The Jaguars’ offense ranks 14th in EPA and 15th in passing percentage. The problem is the defense, where they rank 32nd in EPA and 31st in DVOA.

You may think the Browns should have moved Myles Garrett at the trade deadline since they aren’t going anywhere this season, but despite their poor record, the defense is solid, ranking 13th in EPA and fourth in passing percentage. The Browns have an offensive problem, most of which is at the quarterback position. The Browns’ offense is putrid, ranking 30th in EPA, 32nd in passing percentage and 32nd in DVOA.

The Titans are all about a rebuild in 2025. They traded DeAndre Hopkins to the Chiefs, and they may be looking for a new quarterback as well. Can Will Levis figure out he’s not Josh Allen and stop trying to be the store-brand version of the Buffalo quarterback? That’s the million dollar question that only the coaches can answer. The analytics still indicate that the Titans’ defense is solid, but the offense is terrible, ranking 31st in EPA, 24th in conversion rate, and 27th in DVOA.

The Dolphins finally ended their losing streak in Week 10, getting a much-needed win against the Rams, who are also trying to climb out of a hole. Miami is still 4.5 games behind the Bills and has already been swept by them, so it would be nothing short of a miracle to get back into the division race. Still, there is hope for the playoffs, despite there being a few teams ahead at the moment. The analytics are harder to read for this team because the offense was so bad without Tua Tagovailoa, but now he’s back and the offense is much more efficient. This is also reflected in the numbers, where they rank a decent 18th in offensive success, but only 27th in EPA.

Just a few weeks ago, the Colts were 4-3 and in a good spot. After a terrible performance by sophomore Anthony Richardson against the Texans in a 23-20 loss, they changed starting quarterbacks, opting to go with crafty veteran Joe Flacco. The change hasn’t helped as he has lost both starts and Indianapolis is now in the midst of a three-game losing streak. Is this season over for the Colts? Maybe not, but if Richardson is the future of this franchise, there’s no point in continuing with Flacco. The Colts aren’t doing anything great and are in the middle of the pack, except for offensive success, where they are 31st in the league.

If Cincinnati had beaten the Ravens in Week 10, their season would have been completely different. Instead, most have now written this team off as they are in a division with the Ravens and Steelers, two teams currently in the top five of our power rankings. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase were fantastic and the Bengals’ offense was outstanding, ranking fifth in EPA, 11th in passing percentage and ninth in DVOA. The team’s overall ranking suffers due to their defensive performance and losses. They don’t rank higher than 27th in any defensive category.

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We discussed the fall of the Super Bowl champions this offseason in a recent article. This is one of those cases where their on-field play looks much worse than the numbers indicate. However, the Jets have had some good games but lack any consistency, and that is the picture the analytics paint. Their ranks are everywhere; For example, they rank eighth in defensive success rate, but only 16th in defensive EPA. Being only 22nd in average turnover difference does not contribute to the win/loss record either.

If you’re a Broncos fan, I’m sure the sting of last week’s loss is still very fresh. The Broncos remain in contention for the playoffs and will get another chance to take on the Chiefs in Week 17. However, the schedule up to that point isn’t particularly easy with games against the Falcons, Chargers and Bengals. The Broncos’ calling card remains their defense, ranking third in EPA, fifth in conversion rate and sixth in DVOA.

The Texans have now lost two in a row, but fortunately for them, no one in their division has won this past week, and only the Titans haven’t suffered at least two straight losses. The Texans have nothing to worry about. They are as much a lock to win the AFC South as the Bills are to win the AFC East. Their offense wasn’t the same without Nico Collins, but he should return soon. The defense was fantastic, ranking second in success rate and DVOA.

The Ravens escaped a loss to the Bengals to improve to 7-3, but it feels like their defense will be the downfall of this team, which surprisingly ranks just 26th in the EPA and in the middle of the pack in both passing percentage and DVOA. However, the offense is extraordinary, ranking second in success rate, and first in both EPA and DVOA.

The Chiefs managed to win again in week 10 and remained undefeated. However, the win didn’t do much for their rankings, dropping from third place last week to fourth this week. Kansas City continues to find ways to come out on top, but the numbers don’t show a very dominant team. They rank first in offensive success rate, but only 15th in defensive EPA and 18th in defensive success rate. Another metric that hurts them is average sales variance, which ranks 24th in the category.

The Steelers were number two last week, dropping one spot after losing to the Commanders 28-27. Pittsburgh is on a four-game winning streak and hasn’t lost a game since Russell Wilson took over. Pittsburgh’s defense was a big reason they were in the top 10 in the early weeks of our rankings; however, their attacking numbers have improved, moving them into the top five in recent weeks. They rank 13th in EPA, 17th in graduation rate and 18th in DVOA. Couple this with the top 10 ranking in defensive EPA and DVOA, along with second place in average turnover differential, and you can see why they rank as high as they do.

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It was surprising to see the Chargers climb to number two this week after landing at number four last week, but the numbers don’t lie. They rank very well on the defensive side, where they are second in EPA, sixth in success rate and eighth in DVOA. Add to that their rankings of second in turnover differential average and fifth in score differential average, and you can see how they climbed to second place.

We started our analytical power rankings after week 2 of the season. That’s nine weeks in a row that the Bills have held the top spot in the conference. When combined league-wide, they are second only to the Detroit Lions. The Bills rank in the top 10 in every category except defensive success rate, where they currently rank No. 13. They rank in the top three in three categories: third in offensive EPA, second in point differential average and first in turnover differential average. The question is whether they will keep this place after their next anniversary four-game glove?

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