How will FGCU coach Smesko translate to the WNBA, Dream?

November 13, 2024, 1:22 PM ET

Karl Smesko has built Florida’s Gulf Coast into one of the most consistent mid-major women’s basketball teams in the country over the past 22 years. During that time, one question came up regularly: Would he move to a major conference?

Instead, Smesko left FGCU for the WNBA. The Atlanta dream named him their new coach on Wednesday. Six weeks ago, the Dream parted ways with Tanisha Wright after three seasons and began a recruiting process with a large candidate pool, Atlanta general manager Dan Padover told ESPN.

Padover said the 54-year-old Smesko stood out mainly for his strategic acumen, and that the Dream was eventually able to lure him away from Fort Myers, Florida.

Atlanta finished eighth at 15-25 in the 2024 season, losing to the eventual champion Freedom of New York in the first round of the WNBA playoffs. Led by a core that includes a 2022 No. 1 draft pick Rhyne Howardthe Dream wants to return to the highest level of the WNBA. The franchise has been to the WNBA Finals three times, in 2010, 2011 and 2013.

Can Smesko help put the pieces together to take the Dream to the next level? ESPN’s Charlie Creme, Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel take a look at Smesko’s credentials and how this move affects the Dream and FGCU.

What brings Smesko to the Dream?

Cream: With the recruitment of Smesko, The Dream has fully entered the world of analytics. No program in college basketball has embraced the concept of “3-pointers or layups only” more than FGCU under Smesko. From the 2019-2020 season through 2022-2023, the Eagles led the nation in three-pointers attempted and made. Even last season, when the Eagles were just sixth in three-pointers launched, they ranked second in the nation in three-point percentage.

Smesko likes his teams to take as many threes or drive to the basket as possible: take the shot that provides the most value or the one that has the highest success rate. It will be interesting to see how pro players adapt to this philosophy, or if Smesko adjusts his approach, but expect Atlanta to take fewer jump shots from inside the arc next season.

Voepel: Former Dream coach Nicki Collen was an assistant at FGCU for Smesko for the 2014-15 season before moving to the WNBA. Collen, now head coach at Baylor, has praised Smesko’s basketball IQ.

Smesko’s name has also appeared in other college coaching positions over the years. In 2017, he was offered the job for the USC Trojans women’s program. But he stayed at FGCU, saying it was “hard to leave something that you really love and invested so much in.”

So it says a lot about how fast the Dream went after Smesko that he left what was his comfort zone for a long time. Atlanta, which is under new ownership as of 2021, believes Smesko’s basketball philosophy fits the league even though he has no WNBA experience. His Eagles system has long embraced the concept of positionless basketball, which has become more the norm in the WNBA.

Is Smesko a good fit for Atlanta?

Filippou: Smesko’s offensive system will likely be a breath of fresh air in Atlanta, given the Dream’s offensive efficiency ranked last in the league in 2024 and their pace ranked second-to-last (and neither of these challenges was limited to last season). It will be fascinating to see what that means for the Dream’s future roster construction.

They will probably continue to build around Howard and Allisha Graywho are strong 3-point shooters. But for a team that converted 30.8% from beyond the arc last season, and whose bigs weren’t known for stretching the floor, it won’t be shocking to see some roster turnover to bring in players who are better fit into Smesko’s system.

Voepel: Personally, Smesko is more introverted than many of his peers. How will the Dream players react to that? Free agent Tine Charleswho brought a strong veteran presence to the Dream in 2024, told ESPN in September that she hopes to play at least one more season. But Charles, who turns 36 in December, had a good relationship with Wright, who was also a former teammate. So we’ll see if Charles, who averaged 14.9 points and 9.6 rebounds in 2024, is back with Atlanta in 2025.

Will we see more college coaches make the jump to the WNBA?

Filippou: It is not a given that more coaches will follow in Smesko’s footsteps. Yes, the nature of the college game is grueling year-round, and many coaches point to changes in the NIL and transfer portals that are making their jobs more transactional. Yet coaching contracts at the university level tend to be more secure, in terms of contract length and compensation, than those in the professional game.

Just look at this offseason, where six WNBA coaches were fired, and none other than Wright had been with their teams for more than two years. And while franchises like the Las Vegas Aces And Phoenix Mercury seven-figure deals handed out to Becky Hammon and Nate Tibbetts respectively, that’s not the norm.

As a frame of reference USA Today’s head coach salary database lists 18 female college coaches making at least $1 million this season (Smesko, at $450,000, ranks 59th in the database). That means for big names as coaches Dawn Staley or Jeff Walz or Adia Barnes, they would probably take a pay cut to come to the WNBA.

If/when the rest of the WNBA invests in more lucrative coaching contracts, more college coaches could consider making the jump.

Where does this leave Florida’s Gulf Coast?

Voepel: An Ohio native, Smesko built FGCU from the ground up, launching the program in Division II in 2002 and moving it to Division I in 2007. He has been the program’s sole coach until now. One of his former players, Chelsea Lyles, has been promoted from Eagles head coach to head coach.

These are big shoes to fill: the Eagles have won 14 of 17 regular-season titles since joining Atlantic Sun, never finishing lower than second. They have achieved perfect conference records seven times and Smesko has been ASUN coach of the year 13 times. FGCU has played in 10 NCAA tournaments.

But if anyone knows the system as well as Smesko, it’s Lyles who, between her time as a player and member of the coaching staff, is now in her 17th season at FGCU.

Cream: Three times Smesko’s Eagles won NCAA Tournament games as No. 12 seeds, including in 2022 and 2023. Only once since 2011 has FGCU lost more than one game in the ASUN. In 2022, the Eagles defeated Michigan State in the regular season. Last year, FGCU toppled North Carolina. Smesko routinely scheduled as many major conference opponents as possible, even if many were afraid to play against his style. And he did it largely without big names on his roster.

The aces’ Kierstan Bell is the only WNBA player he coached at FGCU.